I went to lunch today with a co-worker. On the way to the restaurant, he asked if we could have a non-political discussion about the federal budget deficit. I agreed so he asked, “Why do people think the budget deficit is important?” The US economy is strong and growing.”
I considered that for a moment and responded that it is not the deficit itself that’s important, it’s the interest on the Federal Debt that is important. The Federal Debt is the accumulation of all of the deficits from all prior Federal Budgets. These interest payments must be considered because they represent a portion of the non-discretionary budget for which Congress has no choice but to authorize payment. But it is also the portion that the Congress has the least ability to control. Finally, the full faith and credit of the US Government is the foundation upon which the world financial system is based. If the US Government were to default on its debt, the entire world financial system would be thrown into chaos.
The budget for Fiscal Year 2018 (FY 2018) calls for $315 billion to be spent servicing the US Federal Debt of $19 trillion. That seems to imply an average interest rate of 1.65% which makes sense given our recent economic climate during the Great Recession. And that $19 trillion will become $19.44 trillion at the end of this fiscal year because the FY 2018 budget deficit of $440 billion will be added to the prior debt balance.
No problem, right? Well, not exactly.
There is a concept in Economics called opportunity cost. Opportunity cost is the cost of not being able to choose the benefit of investing in something you want to do because you must pay the cost to do something else. Generally this other course of action is dictated to you by your circumstance or previous choices.
Our opportunity cost as a nation is that we can’t do many things we would like to do because we must service the Federal Debt. Without even accounting for rising interest rates, the next budget will require almost $321 billion to service the existing debt. The budget after that will require even more. Think of the roads and bridges that could be rebuilt and the people we could help with $320 billion available each year without having to raise taxes. We could do that if we didn’t have to service the Federal Debt.
As of the close of the financial markets today, the yield on the 5 year Treasury Note is 2.57%, the 10 year Treasury Note yield is 2.85% and the 20 year Treasury Note yields 3.03%. That means that the average interest rate on the Federal Debt for next fiscal year could be in the neighborhood of 1.8% to 2% depending on how much of the outstanding notes have to be refinanced at the higher rates. That means the interest payment for the Federal Debt could rise to $388 billion. If the government doesn’t raise taxes or reduce expenditures, this extra $73 billion will just be added to the Federal Debt. This will lead to even higher borrowing costs in future years.
Unless…we figure out how to reduce the debt. A focus on just reducing the annual deficit is a distraction because any deficit amount is merely added into the debt. We must eliminate the deficit, run a surplus, and pay down the debt.
That will not be easy because we really only have four options and none of them are very appealing.
- We can print $19 trillion of currency and exchange it for the Treasury Notes held by our creditors as they mature. The US Government is one of the few sovereign bodies that could actually do this and make it stick. This would add $19 trillion to the money supply, spark massive inflation in the USD-denominated economies sending prices sky high, forcing employers to raise wages, and wrecking our economy. You’d make more money than you ever made in your life and not be able to afford to buy anything. By the way, this is what the Quantitative Easing program run by the Federal Reserve during the past five years was doing. The bonds are held by the Fed instead of by other creditors. The Fed is reducing their holdings right now. They increased the money supply and now this additional debt will have to be refinanced at the higher interest rates.
- We can cut discretionary spending to offset the new interest cost. This will affect things like the military, healthcare, other human services, law enforcement, and the arts. Please understand that buried in those budgets are dollars supporting research for things that might become consumer products that the people in the private sector can make and buy after the government (e.g. military) has worked out the bugs. We got Corning Ware from the heat shields on the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo space capsules of the 1960’s and 1970’s. The History Channel has a show called Tactical to Practical that explores many of these outcomes. These research projects also employ many highly skilled, highly paid people who on becoming unemployed would flood the job market and depress wages for highly skilled workers. Cancellation of Federal programs would also require we furlough many government employees and fire contractors which would also impact wages in the entire economy. And don’t forget the impacts on our national security if we have to cut the budgets of the Justice and Homeland Security departments.
- We can cut the Federal Entitlement programs and use that money to offset the new interest costs. This will reduce the incomes of people who are unlikely to be able to replace it due to age or infirmity. It will also have similar effects on federal employment as mentioned above.
- We can raise taxes. Not really, we just lowered taxes and the economy got really excited. It got so excited, interest rates started to creep up because people want to borrow money to invest in their businesses. Those people compete with the US Treasury for this money and that raises interest rates. But raising taxes now could extinguish this economic euphoria and throw the economy into the tank again. It might keep interest rates down but who wants to relive the economy of the past ten years?
A fifth option could be to grow the economy and pay down the debt with the extra tax revenue a larger economy would generate. This is what the politicians say should happen. That would be a great plan if our government was really willing to do that. Unfortunately, our government has never seen a surplus of money they couldn’t spend today rather than pay down the debt so they had a reliable stream of money to spend later. For an elected politician, the only opportunity they might have is now and they spend like there is no tomorrow.
Fixing this problem is going to take a kind of leadership in Washington, DC that we have never seen. It will have to be a bi-partisan effort. It will be really hard. It will take serious people to do a serious job and there are not many of them elected to office in this country. It will probably take a crisis even worse than our recent Great Recession to create the sense of urgency required.
Or we can keep kicking the can down the road and let our children deal with this. After all, that’s what our parents did to us.